Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers. Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself.
All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces. Its military-industrial complex has also ramped up the production of hardware from drones to aircraft.
Imperiling Europe's East
Russia's next move over the next few days or weeks will be to declare the necessary combat operations are finished - even if they are not - and that a new constitutional arrangement is being made for the renegade state of Ukraine. They will head for parliament, to presidential powers and to all the governmental areas, and see who they can round up. They can then turn up with their puppets and install him or her into the presidential palace. The Russians need to get into the middle of the city, occupy the bridges and stop people moving backwards and forwards. The first obvious target is to occupy every airstrip around the city - the airfields and airports - partly for the use of their own aircrafts, but also to make sure the Ukrainians can't use them.
- Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.
- Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia.
- Ukraine is working to organise a visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said on Thursday, in remarks related to Reuters by her aide.
- Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said rescue operations are continuing in Ukraine after a barrage of Russian strikes on major cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.
- For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.
Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance. Putin could order Russian troops to enter separatist-held areas in the east in a mostly symbolic show of force. Western governments and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces and Russian-armed proxies are already on the ground. By rolling into separatist-controlled areas in an explicit way, Russia could keep tensions with Kyiv high without having to fire a shot, Breedlove and some experts said. Most of Ukraine's combat forces are deployed along a "contact line" in the eastern Donbass region, where they are facing off against separatists backed by Moscow. If the Kremlin rapidly moved armored units to the west of the front line, it could cut off and trap much of Ukraine's ground troops without having to occupy major cities, experts said.
Is Russia invading Ukraine and what will happen next?
They would come in the wake of failed diplomacy and would start at “the top of the ladder,” according to the U.S. administration. In response, Russia will retaliate, quite possibly in the cyber-domain as well as in the energy sector. Moscow will limit access to critical goods such as titanium, of which Russia has been the world’s second-largest exporter. Russia will be ruthless in trying to get one or several European states to back away from economic conflict by linking a relaxation in tension to these countries’ self-interest, thus undermining consensus in the EU and NATO. If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia.
The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying". With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops. More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve.
International response – good and not so good news
Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers. As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. First, https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-will-help-ukraine-if-russia-invades.html has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.
- With any of these outcomes, Ukraine will have been effectively detached from the West.
- The Polish army said it deployed aircraft to protect Polish airspace after Russia's latest missile attack on Ukraine.
- Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators.
- We hear from metro stations turned refuges that people are coming together to help each other.
- "We have seen Russia use tactics of decimating cities and civilian infrastructure in past conflicts in Chechnya and as part of Russia's military support for President Assad in Syria," Dr Genauer said.