My feelings are mixed regarding the decision of our president. I got a government email saying that we had until March 14 to download all files from Instagram. We have VK (a Russian substitute for Facebook), but it’s not the same. It was rather cheap, but now I want to buy AirPods and they’re really expensive. They were 7,000 roubles and now cost more than 14,000 roubles.
Overall, the war’s outcome will depend on the mood of the group who support it and on the group of conformists who go along with it. That is because its most avid proponents, and its most intractable opponents, will not change their minds. Russia-based research outfits such as the Levada Center have been able to maintain some independence, but face higher rates of non-response. Many ordinary Russians decline to participate in polling for fear of government retribution—and those who do are likely to indicate higher levels of support for Putin for the same reason, Botchkovar says. Additionally, data suggests that up to 30% of Russians say they’re not closely following the situation in Ukraine, she says. But the problem with measuring public opinion in a country under authoritarian rule and censorship, Botchkovar says, is that the data are highly imperfect.
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This messaging appeared convincing, at least to a point. According to the Athena Project, a collective of sociologists and I.T. Twenty-one per cent of TV viewers didn’t know the goal of the operation.
"During that time, lots of data became available from the Russian permafrost regions," he remembers. International scientists started collaborating with Russian scientists to investigate how permafrost was changing. A few years ago, Tape helped start the Arctic Beaver Observation Network, so scientists all around the Arctic could collaborate and share data. But with https://euronewstop.co.uk/if-russia-invades-ukraine-what-will-happen-in-uk.html of Ukraine, the dream of Russian collaboration in the project stalled, he says. "We're having a meeting at the end of February," he says, "and it's basically Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia. There's no one from Russia coming."
'It's been a long time coming'
(These surveys were conducted before Mr Putin announced his mobilisation drive.) But these shocking figures are deceptive. Public opposition to the war can result in criminal prosecution, so people who are critical of the war and the regime are less likely to agree to speak to a pollster. This results in skewed samples and inflates the level of support for the war. Where I am, people typically express their opinion at rallies, on social networks and among their inner circle. Usually, people will spread the word about protests secretly.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has sharply constricted the space for free expression in recent years, but some independent pollsters who fled the country have not abandoned their work. While the defence alliance, Nato, and the US warn of an imminent invasion, many people are still unconvinced that war will happen or that it would be to Russia's advantage. OK, I confess I didn't know who the woman was, but her thoughts didn't exactly seem preoccupied by a possible invasion on her country. As concern grows that Russia will invade Ukraine, BBC correspondents gauge the public mood in Moscow and Kyiv on whether the crisis could lead to a wider war in Europe. Your responses are secure as the form is encrypted and only the Guardian has access to your contributions. We will keep all responses from people living inside Russia anonymous, as well as anyone else who wishes to be.
In addition, the police recently searched the flat of a close friend of mine and then put her under house arrest for two months. She had been putting up posters that said “No to war” around the city. None of us wanted this war, and we stand in opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions. At demonstrations, people are detained for several days or fined.
- What are your hopes and fears for the coming weeks and months?
- But for the majority who have stayed in Russia, life outwardly is pretty much the same as it always was.
- Overall, researchers say they have tracked just a 9% fall in support for the war last year.
- “At the beginning, I took a favourable position [of the campaign], because even before February 24, I considered it necessary to eliminate the Ukrainian problem.
Under a bridge someone has daubed PEACE in big red letters. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left Russia, including me and my BBC Russian colleagues. But for the majority who have stayed in Russia, life outwardly is pretty much the same as it always was. "Was Putin really going to start a war with Ukraine?" he asked. “Covid showed our ugly side, with people getting upset when all they were being asked to do was sit on the sofa at home,” said the former TA soldier.