The West's bet was that the threat of sanctions would be enough to deter Russian aggression. This is a question lots of you put forward and has been tackled by our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes here... On the face of it no one wants this conflict to spread but there is always the law of unintended consequences and mistakes and misunderstandings escalating into an expanded conflict, as has happened in wars in the past. International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn and our team of specialist correspondents answered your questions on the Ukraine crisis in a live digital Q&A. They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade.
- They know it, they engage with us about it all the time, we have an alliance in which we’re at the epicenter,” said Max Bergmann of the Center for American Progress.
- "Unfortunately, almost nine hours of talks have ended without any significant results," Russian deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak said.
- His announcement came as the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, stunning ambassadors who had to deliver impromptu reactions to the rapidly changing events.
Explosions thundered in the dim light before dawn, minutes after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia cynically declared the start of a “special military operation” to “demilitarize” Ukraine but not occupy the country. His announcement came as the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, stunning ambassadors who had to deliver impromptu reactions to the rapidly changing events. Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million. Russia has shown that it is committed to a long conflict in Ukraine and that it has the capacity to send hundreds of thousands of men to war.
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Lithuania's prime minister, for example, told Insider in February that her country joined NATO "because of Putin." Hall said the idea that NATO is threatening Russia by expanding towards its borders is "very much part of the Russian propaganda narrative." Here are https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-does-ukraine-war-mean-for-uk.html gave, how they match with reality, and the other likely reasons why Russia sent its armed forces into an independent, sovereign nation.
Russia kicks off military drills in Belarus as Britain warns Moscow that going to war with Ukraine would have disastrous consequences. It was yet another indication that hardware was being beefed up around the strategic Black Sea, where Russia, Ukraine and three NATO allies have bases. "Our advice to them is very clear; this is a very dangerous situation and for your own safety, you should seek to make your way out of Ukraine. It will be a very volatile situation if there is conflict there," he said. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison repeated warnings for Australians to leave Ukraine over fears of a Russian invasion. Several NATO allies, including Britain, Norway and Denmark, are also asking their citizens to leave Ukraine.
Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.
But war, if it happened, could be devastating to Ukraine, with unpredictable fallout for the rest of Europe and the West. The US and its European allies have responded to Putin’s aggression with unprecedented sanctions, but have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, for good reason. Yet even for some among the pro-Kremlin conservatives fighting in Ukraine, there is a nostalgia for Lenin as a powerful historical figure. “Every thinking Russian is proud that we had Lenin, that we have Lenin,” wrote Zakhar Prilepin, a writer and paramilitary leader. Luke Harding reports from Kupiansk, where almost two years after Vladimir Putin’s all-out invasion, Moscow has mobilised tens of thousands of troops.
Under Nato's Article 5 the entire western military alliance is obliged to come to the defence of any member state that comes under attack. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. The Biden administration, along with its European allies, is trying to come up with an aggressive plan to punish Russia, should it invade again. The so-called nuclear options — such as an oil and gas embargo, or cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the electronic messaging service that makes global financial transactions possible — seem unlikely, in part because of the ways it could hurt the global economy. Russia isn’t an Iran or North Korea; it is a major economy that does a lot of trade, especially in raw materials and gas and oil.
- But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.
- No Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky, under continued Russian pressure, has turned to the West for help, talking openly about wanting to join NATO.
- The only slightly positive news seemed to come out of Moscow, where British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said he had had a "constructive, frank" discussion with Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.
And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. A few months into office, the Biden administration spoke about a “stable, predictable” relationship with Russia. To Putin, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal (which Moscow would know something about) and the US’s domestic turmoil are signs of weakness.
- The US and its European allies have responded to Putin’s aggression with unprecedented sanctions, but have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, for good reason.
- This meant Putin could wait to see if the alliance would " kind of shatter from within."
- If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced.
- But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond.