Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that several missiles have hit infrastructure and border guards. Explosions have been heard by residents in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities across the country. However, uncertainty seems to be prevailing in Ukraine as people are being urged to stay at home where possible. But the president has imposed martial law across the country, saying that Ukraine was "ready for everything".
The recognition of the territories and occupation by Russian forces is also an act of aggression but it is not the nightmare scenario. Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea. Russian cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine relentlessly in recent years, including attacks on the capital city of Kyiv's power grid in 2015 and 2016.
In addition, Russia could seek to extend the separatist-controlled area, possibly by seizing communication points or power plants that would make the region more viable as a separate quasi-state. They say that Ukraine - with Western support - has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources. Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support. The Institute for the Study of War thinktank says the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are "higher than most people imagine", as US resolve - particularly among Republicans - possibly wavers over providing more military aid to Kyiv.
Seize southern canal, land bridge
The majority of European countries turned to the tried and tested protective security umbrella of NATO, backed by American military capabilities. With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator. They feel that, if not stopped in and by Ukraine, Putin may entertain aggression against other territories.
Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying".
Russia and Ukraine peace talks:
Either way, if Europe's natural gas supply is pinched, that could cause energy prices — which have already been climbing — to rise even further. And even though https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-france-doing-to-help-ukraine.html .S. imports relatively little oil from Russia, oil prices are set by the global market, meaning local prices could rise anyway. Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe.
The historic decision by both Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership points to the gravity of this threat. Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers.
What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. "The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two," said Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian troops made two attempts to storm the presidential compound, according to his adviser. On Tuesday, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, stopped the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Russia’s recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics. First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.
Russia’s main demand that Ukraine never be part of NATO and the organisation won’t expand further into Eastern Europe has been rejected. Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. “We have become so comfortable here in Britain that it’s hard to imagine young people fighting, and when I went to Afghanistan a decade ago, I didn’t think the youngsters of would be up to much,” he said. The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier. “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.
Daniel Fried is the Weiser Family distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. He also served as ambassador to Poland during the Clinton administration. Hours before the attacks began, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made a dramatic televised plea to the people of Russia, saying he wanted to speak to them directly after Mr. Putin had rejected his phone call. Concrete decisions will matter more than any new organisational organigrams, and sophisticated plans or strategies are valuable only as long as they are made real.
- Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia.
- He has spoken of the capture of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, as a "significant result for Russia".
- Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily.
- Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists.
- If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced.
Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a bad idea quite apart from the Kremlin’s threats against Ukraine, though US sanctions against German and other European companies would be a costly way of dealing with it. The prospect of a new Kremlin attack on Ukraine seems, finally, to have convinced the new German government to change course on the pipeline and acknowledge that it could not proceed in the face of new Russian aggression.
- A victorious Russian army at the end of the Ukraine war, the ISW says, would be combat experienced and considerably larger than its pre-2022 forces.
- Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that several missiles have hit infrastructure and border guards.
- But the ruthless conduct of the military campaign (e.g. indiscriminate use of blanket shelling) means that even incompetent Russian forces can achieve gains against the Ukrainian military, though it is being modernised at record pace.
- Separatists there, backed by Moscow, have been fighting Ukrainian government forces since 2014, and Russia recognized their enclaves this week as independent republics.
- Russia has started to relish its role as a predator, and it is using brutal force to achieve its imperialist goals.
Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO are a red line for Russia. He also expressed concerns that some members of NATO are trying to set up a military training centre in Ukraine. This would give the country a military advantage in eastern Europe without Ukraine even joining the alliance. While NATO say they are “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes”, they have the “military power to undertake crisis management operations” if diplomatic efforts aren’t successful.
- Warnings about the "shrinking size" of the army have also been sounded by former military chief General Lord Dannatt, who told The Times numbers had reduced from 102,000 in 2006 to 74,000 today and were still "falling fast".
- A massive invasion and occupation — what Hodges, the retired Army general, calls "the big red arrow" across Ukraine — is less likely, and it's not clear that Russia has sufficient forces to hold that much territory, several experts said.
- But Russia's military doctrine prescribes achieving surprise and shock; maximum use of all lethal force available; rapid tempo of operations; and quick achievement of objectives.
- More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve.
He said countries that were criticizing Russia were showing “utter indifference to the fate of the Donbas people,” just as Kyiv and its Western backers had. Many people in Kyiv have sought shelter in underground metro stations. Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed.