Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers. As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.
- Even here, though, certain banks were excluded from these measures to allow energy transactions, and EU countries, like Germany, are so far blocking efforts to expand these penalties.
- Russia has Europe’s largest conventional military, which it is more than ready to use.
- President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.
- Enjoying an overwhelming military advantage over Ukraine's smaller, less advanced forces, Russia has a variety of options if Putin decides to launch an attack, depending on what Moscow wants to achieve, the price it is willing to pay and how the West responds, experts say.
- Ukrainian and Russian officials agreed to a temporary ceasefire to establish humanitarian corridors out of six cities on March 9, but the enforcement of those safe passages has been spotty, at best.
- As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”.
Ukrainians may have the tactical advantage and the spirit to persevere, but structural factors weigh in Russia’s favor. In a Politico essay, Graham and scholar Rajan Menon proposed a framework for a negotiated outcome that begins with confidence-building measures between the US and Russia, rebuilding arms control treaties. The US and NATO would pledge that neither Ukraine nor Georgia will join NATO in the next several years or decades, though the possibility may be open someday. Russian academic Alexander Dynkin circulated a similar idea in the lead-up to the war.
Putin needs a way out
President Putin warned in December that the war "could be a lengthy process", but then added later that Russia's goal was "not to spin the flywheel of military conflict", but to end it. A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. If the Ukrainians keep on fighting, and a guerrilla war breaks out, then all of that will become impossible to carry forward.
"If he manages to kill Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government with a nuclear weapon, that may be a way for him to declare victory and then possibly withdraw." But they're not easy to use, especially against Ukrainians operating in small, widely dispersed forces. "[But] there is a real risk that Putin might look to nuclear use to actually stave off the crisis that he's facing in Ukraine. "[Putin] is now facing a precarious domestic situation, with no expectation of upcoming military successes for Russia on the battlefield," Dr Genauer said.
How do gas supplies affect the crisis?
Power grids, hospitals and local governments could all be targets, she said. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine. "The premise of sanctions is to hurt the other guy more than you hurt your own interests. But that does not mean there will not be some collateral damage," said Doug Rediker, a partner at International Capital Strategies. If there were Ukrainian soldiers on board the transport plane, then Russia will eventually have to provide the proof. We don't know how much more officials here in Kyiv may already know and not be saying.
Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers. Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself.
They would come in the wake of failed diplomacy and would start at “the top of the ladder,” according to the U.S. administration. In response, Russia will retaliate, quite possibly in the cyber-domain as well as in the energy sector. Moscow will limit access to critical goods such as titanium, of which Russia has been the world’s second-largest exporter. Russia will be ruthless in trying to get one or several European states to back away from economic conflict by linking a relaxation in tension to these countries’ self-interest, thus undermining consensus in the EU and NATO. If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-china-saying-about-ukraine.html .S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia.
- Russia has assembled up to 190,000 forces personnel, including ground, sea and air, around Ukraine, armed with fast jets, artillery, warships and tanks.
- "Sanctions are an incredibly weak deterrent and have consistently failed to deter Russia from the use of force in Ukraine and elsewhere," said Michael Kofman, the research program director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a Washington-area think tank.
- Although Europeans will be demanding a greater military commitment to Europe from the United States, a broader Russian invasion of Ukraine should drive every NATO member to increase its defense spending.
- Those effects may be most visceral for stomachs in the Middle East; Egypt and Yemen depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat.
- Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries.
Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance. Putin could order Russian troops to enter separatist-held areas in the east in a mostly symbolic show of force. Western governments and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces and Russian-armed proxies are already on the ground. By rolling into separatist-controlled areas in an explicit way, Russia could keep tensions with Kyiv high without having to fire a shot, Breedlove and some experts said. Most of Ukraine's combat forces are deployed along a "contact line" in the eastern Donbass region, where they are facing off against separatists backed by Moscow. If the Kremlin rapidly moved armored units to the west of the front line, it could cut off and trap much of Ukraine's ground troops without having to occupy major cities, experts said.
The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying". With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. It is in a fight for its survival and understands what Russia will do if it stops. More European nations are now talking about the need to step up aid in light of concerns that the US is weakening in its resolve.
Meanwhile in the Middle East, UK and US forces have launched airstrikes on Yemen in response to the Iranian-backed Houthis' attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million. They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives.
