Crucially, Allies have finally attributed responsibility where it lies, calling Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” in their new Strategic Concept. On 27 May, Finance Minister Siluanov admitted that “money, huge resources are needed for the special operation”. He also confirmed that 8 trillion roubles (USD $120b) were required for the stimulus budget. Sanctions are starting to bite and will set the Russian economy - which is not able to produce a huge range of goods without foreign technology or parts – back for decades.
The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing. Nor can much respite be expected by greater production from the OPEC cartel of oil producing nations. Apart from Saudi Arabia, most are already struggling to increase production in line with the cartel's recent increases in quotas. Europe itself could restrict future gas flows by abandoning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which would run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Some autocratic leaders are looking to see how robustly the West resists attempts to undermine the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation.
Elsewhere on the BBC
Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. Fighting could spread into Belarus where Russian forces are already stationed. Nato powers are already promising to build up their own forces in the alliance's eastern flank. The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.
- The Royal Air Force, for example, last year had to issue a grovelling apology after an official inquiry found it had unlawfully discriminated against the recruitment of white men to boost diversity targets.
- The UK Government has no active system in place to provide the public with early warning of a nuclear attack, i revealed this week.
- If you are a frontline Ukrainian soldier in eastern Ukraine then clearly the situation is extremely dangerous.
- The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.
- A long-held taboo that made an actual application of nuclear force unthinkable has been verbally discarded.
"Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere," he said. But the official noted there had been a combination of sharp bellicose rhetoric from Moscow, accusations of being provoked by Ukraine and Nato, a lack of transparency, and a worrying track record, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade.
Ukraine crisis: What’s at stake for the UK?
In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. Russia is bound to be a weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future. But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested. Divergent interpretations over sanctions that affect the transport of prohibited goods to Kaliningrad illustrate this problem.
- Your parents are likely to pay even more for gas and electricity because of this crisis.
- President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.
- By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences.
- Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit.
- But it is a formal, public and written commitment by the UK to support Ukraine.
In sum, the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power. This year Russia has undertaken a major military buildup near Ukraine's border and in Crimea.
The Russian president has recognised the independence of two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine. The territories have been armed, financed and politically controlled by Russia since 2014. But until this week, Russia still recognised them as part of Ukraine.
- Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January.
- Superior US Himars missiles helped turn the course of the war and German Leopard 2 tanks are promised, even if Western fighter jets are not.
- With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.
- Crucially, Allies have finally attributed responsibility where it lies, calling Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” in their new Strategic Concept.
- Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK.
For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.
- Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.
- Corruption, a disease at the heart of the Russian state, displayed itself on a grand scale in the conduct of the military operation.
- Additional, defensive Nato deployments on Russia’s borders could increase the risk of Europe-wide conflagration.
- Anyone exposed within a 6.8-mile radius of the impact would almost certainly suffer third-degree burns, while hundreds of thousands would be likely to die due to radiation fallout.
While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago. At the end of the Cold War, most of the 100-strong network of nuclear bunkers were closed, along with around 1,500 underground posts for the Royal Observer Corps, a 10,000-strong volunteer force. Nato uses a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. Last November, the near 150-metre long ship sailed around the coast of Denmark with its transmitter turned off, while continuously sending radio messages to a naval base in Russia disclosing its positions. Last year, i reported that the ship conducted a six-day tour off the Scottish coast around the same time, in an area with a heavy concentration of oil and gas pipelines and data and power cables.
- There's a great community spirit - everyone is pitching in, including international and local organisations.
- We remain deeply humbled by the bravery and the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their determination to win.
- The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so.
- While Ukrainians may be unable to defeat a large-scale invasion, they could inflict high casualties, a sensitive issue in Russia.
- The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers.
The UK, US and other allies only agreed to start giving Ukraine longer-range missiles last year. Ukrainian forces have used them to hit targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine but not deep inside Russia amid concerns about escalation. I offer my condolences and that of the UK to all Ukrainians for the lives lost due to these barbaric airstrikes. These took place far away from the front lines of Russia’s war, in civilian populated areas. The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.
Many analysts fear war in Ukraine could potentially spill over into other European countries. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-a-no-fly-zone-above-ukraine.html of its people do not want their country to become part of Russia. It may not be a member of the European Union or Nato, but it is an ally of European powers and has a pro-Western government. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries. The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing". Ms Truss today told Mr Lavrov that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia would have “massive consequences and carry severe costs”.